Tag Archives: computer models

The Upside of Covid-19

It’s true that the pandemic has been a catastrophe for the entire world, but there is one silver lining. The death counts from the flu, emphysema, cancer, automobile accidents, suicides and a host of other common causes of mortality have plummeted!

No, we all know the reason that deaths from other causes have dwindled. It’s because of “guidance” from the CDC and good old-fashioned dishonesty that is chalking a host of other deaths up as due to the coronavirus when it was (or simply may have been) in the system of someone who died from other, unrelated causes. A few months ago, based on computer models that showed that millions of deaths could be expected, the “experts” demanded that our entire nation grind to a halt and “shelter in place” in order to save America from the Wuhan Virus. As more data has become available, though, it’s now starting to look like the voluntary self-immolation of the United States economy was–well, shall we say, premature? Now those “experts” have a vested interest in inflating the numbers of deaths from the coronavirus in order to protect their reputations.

Of course I’m not serious about the silver lining, but there are a couple of “good” things about this pandemic.

First, it has clearly demonstrated the folly of making monumental economic decisions based on computer models. Computer models are basically programs that manipulate data and draw “possible” conclusions from that data. They will never be any better than the data put into them and the skill and intentions of those who write the programs. In the case of Covid-19, we cannot (at this time) make any observations about the intentions of the model creators, but the data, from the very start, was deeply flawed and so were the conclusions drawn from the models. It’s now becoming clear that although it is unusually contagious, the death rate from the Wuhan Virus is not, under most circumstances, nearly as high as the models originally predicted.

More importantly, it has clearly demonstrated that there are a lot of people who govern us that are simply waiting for an excuse to seize and wield extraordinary, authoritarian powers over our daily lives. In states all across this country (usually “Blue” ones) governors effectively declared themselves King and have issued a wide raft of decrees that are supposed to keep us “safe” and save lives. In many cases, these emergency orders are arbitrary, stupid, counterproductive and dangerous, but the would-be dictators are wielding the police powers of their state to shutter business, close churches, order people from the streets, close beaches and harass mothers who allow their children out of the house to play with other children. They have issued decrees such as:

  • In some states, boating alone to fish or kayak was forbidden. In other cases, two people may boat together, but not three or more–regardless of the size of the boat.
  • Liquor stores may open for drive-through or parking lot pickup, but churches may not hold in-car services in the parking lot.
  • Marijuana stores may open, but not gun stores.
  • People may jog or run on the beach, but not stop or sit.
  • “Essential” stores like Wal-Mart, Home Depot or Lowe’s may open and practice “social distancing,” but small convenience stores may not.

We could go on and on, but let’s just draw the conclusion and finish up. This pandemic has given all of America a chance to see what life looks like under the control of leftists and statists (Democrats, mostly) when they gain power. Their goal is obvious: to gut the thriving Trump economy that seemed likely to propel him to a second term. But I think they underestimate the intelligence of the American people. As folks in Blue states watch the people in surrounding Red states go back to work, they are going to understand that it is their own Democratic state governments that have placed a boot on their necks. Come November, they won’t forget.